Fed Funds Rate Probabilities
Source: CME Group
Jan 29, 2025
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 4.00 - 4.25
| 11.1% | 8.9% | 17.5% |
| 4.25 - 4.50
| 88.9% | 91.1% | 81.6% |
| 4.50 - 4.75
| — | — | 0.8% |
Mar 12, 2025
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 3.75 - 4.00
| 4.5% | 3.8% | 9.0% |
| 4.00 - 4.25
| 42.9% | 44.2% | 50.5% |
| 4.25 - 4.50
| 52.5% | 52.0% | 40.1% |
| 4.50 - 4.75
| — | — | 0.4% |
Apr 23, 2025
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 3.50 - 3.75
| 0.9% | 0.7% | 2.2% |
| 3.75 - 4.00
| 11.9% | 11.5% | 19.2% |
| 4.00 - 4.25
| 44.8% | 45.7% | 47.9% |
| 4.25 - 4.50
| 42.5% | 42.1% | 30.3% |
| 4.50 - 4.75
| — | — | 0.3% |
Jun 04, 2025
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 3.25 - 3.50
| 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| 3.50 - 3.75
| 3.0% | 2.8% | 6.4% |
| 3.75 - 4.00
| 18.2% | 18.1% | 26.3% |
| 4.00 - 4.25
| 44.3% | 45.0% | 43.6% |
| 4.25 - 4.50
| 34.4% | 34.0% | 22.9% |
| 4.50 - 4.75
| — | — | 0.2% |
Jul 16, 2025
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 3.00 - 3.25
| 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 3.25 - 3.50
| 0.9% | 0.8% | 2.7% |
| 3.50 - 3.75
| 6.7% | 6.6% | 13.8% |
| 3.75 - 4.00
| 24.7% | 24.7% | 32.8% |
| 4.00 - 4.25
| 41.9% | 42.3% | 35.9% |
| 4.25 - 4.50
| 25.8% | 25.6% | 14.5% |
| 4.50 - 4.75
| — | — | 0.1% |