Fed Funds Rate Probabilities
Source: CME Group
Jul 30, 2025
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 4.00 - 4.25
| 6.4% | 3.2% | 5.3% |
| 4.25 - 4.50
| 93.6% | 96.8% | 94.7% |
Sep 17, 2025
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 3.75 - 4.00
| 3.5% | 1.8% | 3.0% |
| 4.00 - 4.25
| 54.2% | 54.5% | 55.6% |
| 4.25 - 4.50
| 42.2% | 43.7% | 41.4% |
Oct 29, 2025
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 3.50 - 3.75
| 1.9% | 0.9% | 1.8% |
| 3.75 - 4.00
| 30.5% | 29.8% | 34.4% |
| 4.00 - 4.25
| 47.9% | 48.8% | 47.1% |
| 4.25 - 4.50
| 19.8% | 20.5% | 16.7% |
Dec 10, 2025
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 3.25 - 3.50
| 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.2% |
| 3.50 - 3.75
| 19.9% | 18.5% | 23.9% |
| 3.75 - 4.00
| 41.4% | 41.4% | 43.0% |
| 4.00 - 4.25
| 30.2% | 31.5% | 26.5% |
| 4.25 - 4.50
| 7.3% | 8.0% | 5.4% |
Jan 26, 2026
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 3.00 - 3.25
| 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| 3.25 - 3.50
| 10.0% | 9.0% | 10.8% |
| 3.50 - 3.75
| 30.0% | 29.3% | 32.0% |
| 3.75 - 4.00
| 36.1% | 36.7% | 36.0% |
| 4.00 - 4.25
| 19.4% | 20.5% | 17.6% |
| 4.25 - 4.50
| 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% |
Mar 18, 2026
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 2.75 - 3.00
| 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 3.00 - 3.25
| 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% |
| 3.25 - 3.50
| 21.1% | 20.7% | 21.8% |
| 3.50 - 3.75
| 33.4% | 33.6% | 34.1% |
| 3.75 - 4.00
| 26.8% | 27.3% | 26.5% |
| 4.00 - 4.25
| 10.8% | 11.1% | 10.1% |
| 4.25 - 4.50
| 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% |
Apr 29, 2026
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 2.50 - 2.75
| 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 2.75 - 3.00
| 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.1% |
| 3.00 - 3.25
| 11.1% | 10.3% | 11.0% |
| 3.25 - 3.50
| 25.3% | 24.9% | 25.7% |
| 3.50 - 3.75
| 31.2% | 31.6% | 31.6% |
| 3.75 - 4.00
| 21.3% | 22.1% | 21.2% |
| 4.00 - 4.25
| 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.3% |
| 4.25 - 4.50
| 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.0% |
Jun 17, 2026
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 2.25 - 2.50
| 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.50 - 2.75
| 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| 2.75 - 3.00
| 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% |
| 3.00 - 3.25
| 19.1% | 18.5% | 18.2% |
| 3.25 - 3.50
| 28.6% | 28.7% | 28.6% |
| 3.50 - 3.75
| 25.6% | 26.2% | 26.5% |
| 3.75 - 4.00
| 13.6% | 14.2% | 14.4% |
| 4.00 - 4.25
| 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| 4.25 - 4.50
| 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
Jul 29, 2026
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 2.00 - 2.25
| 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.25 - 2.50
| 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 2.50 - 2.75
| 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.7% |
| 2.75 - 3.00
| 11.7% | 10.8% | 10.1% |
| 3.00 - 3.25
| 22.7% | 22.1% | 21.4% |
| 3.25 - 3.50
| 27.5% | 27.8% | 28.0% |
| 3.50 - 3.75
| 21.1% | 21.9% | 22.8% |
| 3.75 - 4.00
| 10.0% | 10.6% | 11.2% |
| 4.00 - 4.25
| 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.1% |
| 4.25 - 4.50
| 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
Sep 16, 2026
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 1.75 - 2.00
| 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.00 - 2.25
| 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 2.25 - 2.50
| 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| 2.50 - 2.75
| 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% |
| 2.75 - 3.00
| 15.7% | 13.8% | 13.8% |
| 3.00 - 3.25
| 24.4% | 23.6% | 23.6% |
| 3.25 - 3.50
| 25.2% | 26.3% | 26.3% |
| 3.50 - 3.75
| 17.1% | 19.0% | 19.0% |
| 3.75 - 4.00
| 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% |
| 4.00 - 4.25
| 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| 4.25 - 4.50
| 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
Oct 28, 2026
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 1.50 - 1.75
| 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1.75 - 2.00
| 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.00 - 2.25
| 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 2.25 - 2.50
| 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.5% |
| 2.50 - 2.75
| 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% |
| 2.75 - 3.00
| 16.9% | 15.1% | 14.7% |
| 3.00 - 3.25
| 24.5% | 24.0% | 23.8% |
| 3.25 - 3.50
| 24.1% | 25.3% | 25.6% |
| 3.50 - 3.75
| 15.7% | 17.6% | 18.0% |
| 3.75 - 4.00
| 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.0% |
| 4.00 - 4.25
| 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| 4.25 - 4.50
| 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
Dec 09, 2026
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 1.25 - 1.50
| 0.0% | — | — |
| 1.50 - 1.75
| 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1.75 - 2.00
| 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.00 - 2.25
| 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| 2.25 - 2.50
| 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.1% |
| 2.50 - 2.75
| 9.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% |
| 2.75 - 3.00
| 17.9% | 16.4% | 16.0% |
| 3.00 - 3.25
| 24.5% | 24.2% | 24.1% |
| 3.25 - 3.50
| 22.9% | 24.2% | 24.5% |
| 3.50 - 3.75
| 14.5% | 16.2% | 16.6% |
| 3.75 - 4.00
| 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% |
| 4.00 - 4.25
| 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% |
| 4.25 - 4.50
| 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% |