Fed Funds Rate Probabilities
Source: CME Group
May 07, 2025
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 4.00 - 4.25
| 18.2% | 18.6% | 11.2% |
| 4.25 - 4.50
| 81.8% | 81.4% | 88.8% |
Jun 18, 2025
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 3.75 - 4.00
| 12.1% | 13.1% | 6.9% |
| 4.00 - 4.25
| 60.6% | 62.6% | 59.3% |
| 4.25 - 4.50
| 27.4% | 24.3% | 33.8% |
Jul 30, 2025
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 3.50 - 3.75
| 8.0% | 8.7% | 3.1% |
| 3.75 - 4.00
| 44.2% | 45.9% | 30.4% |
| 4.00 - 4.25
| 38.6% | 37.2% | 47.8% |
| 4.25 - 4.50
| 9.2% | 8.2% | 18.6% |
Sep 17, 2025
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 3.25 - 3.50
| 5.6% | 6.2% | 1.8% |
| 3.50 - 3.75
| 33.2% | 35.3% | 18.7% |
| 3.75 - 4.00
| 40.3% | 39.7% | 40.4% |
| 4.00 - 4.25
| 18.2% | 16.5% | 31.2% |
| 4.25 - 4.50
| 2.8% | 2.3% | 8.0% |
Oct 29, 2025
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 3.00 - 3.25
| 2.6% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| 3.25 - 3.50
| 18.4% | 19.7% | 7.0% |
| 3.50 - 3.75
| 36.5% | 37.3% | 25.4% |
| 3.75 - 4.00
| 30.0% | 28.9% | 37.5% |
| 4.00 - 4.25
| 11.0% | 9.9% | 24.0% |
| 4.25 - 4.50
| 1.5% | 1.3% | 5.5% |
Dec 10, 2025
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 2.75 - 3.00
| 1.4% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| 3.00 - 3.25
| 11.2% | 12.4% | 3.4% |
| 3.25 - 3.50
| 28.3% | 29.7% | 15.2% |
| 3.50 - 3.75
| 32.9% | 32.6% | 30.8% |
| 3.75 - 4.00
| 19.6% | 18.1% | 31.5% |
| 4.00 - 4.25
| 5.8% | 5.0% | 15.8% |
| 4.25 - 4.50
| 0.7% | 0.5% | 3.1% |
Jan 26, 2026
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 2.50 - 2.75
| 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| 2.75 - 3.00
| 4.1% | 4.6% | 0.8% |
| 3.00 - 3.25
| 15.9% | 17.1% | 5.5% |
| 3.25 - 3.50
| 29.6% | 30.5% | 17.9% |
| 3.50 - 3.75
| 29.3% | 28.6% | 30.9% |
| 3.75 - 4.00
| 15.9% | 14.5% | 28.8% |
| 4.00 - 4.25
| 4.4% | 3.8% | 13.6% |
| 4.25 - 4.50
| 0.5% | 0.4% | 2.5% |
Mar 18, 2026
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 2.25 - 2.50
| 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 2.50 - 2.75
| 1.6% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| 2.75 - 3.00
| 8.1% | 8.6% | 2.2% |
| 3.00 - 3.25
| 20.5% | 21.4% | 9.1% |
| 3.25 - 3.50
| 29.5% | 29.9% | 21.7% |
| 3.50 - 3.75
| 24.8% | 24.1% | 30.3% |
| 3.75 - 4.00
| 12.0% | 11.1% | 24.3% |
| 4.00 - 4.25
| 3.1% | 2.7% | 10.3% |
| 4.25 - 4.50
| 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.8% |
Apr 29, 2026
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 2.00 - 2.25
| 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.25 - 2.50
| 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| 2.50 - 2.75
| 4.0% | 3.8% | 0.5% |
| 2.75 - 3.00
| 12.6% | 12.4% | 3.1% |
| 3.00 - 3.25
| 23.8% | 24.0% | 10.7% |
| 3.25 - 3.50
| 27.8% | 28.2% | 22.8% |
| 3.50 - 3.75
| 20.1% | 20.2% | 29.5% |
| 3.75 - 4.00
| 8.8% | 8.6% | 22.5% |
| 4.00 - 4.25
| 2.1% | 2.0% | 9.2% |
| 4.25 - 4.50
| 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.6% |
Jun 17, 2026
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 1.75 - 2.00
| — | — | 0.0% |
| 2.00 - 2.25
| 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.25 - 2.50
| 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 2.50 - 2.75
| 2.6% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| 2.75 - 3.00
| 9.1% | 8.9% | 4.2% |
| 3.00 - 3.25
| 19.2% | 19.3% | 12.6% |
| 3.25 - 3.50
| 26.1% | 26.5% | 23.8% |
| 3.50 - 3.75
| 23.2% | 23.4% | 28.4% |
| 3.75 - 4.00
| 13.4% | 13.3% | 20.5% |
| 4.00 - 4.25
| 4.8% | 4.7% | 8.1% |
| 4.25 - 4.50
| 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.3% |
| 4.50 - 4.75
| 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
Jul 29, 2026
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 1.50 - 1.75
| — | — | — |
| 1.75 - 2.00
| 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.00 - 2.25
| 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.25 - 2.50
| 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 2.50 - 2.75
| 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| 2.75 - 3.00
| 9.8% | 9.6% | 4.8% |
| 3.00 - 3.25
| 19.7% | 19.8% | 13.3% |
| 3.25 - 3.50
| 25.9% | 26.3% | 24.2% |
| 3.50 - 3.75
| 22.6% | 22.8% | 27.9% |
| 3.75 - 4.00
| 12.8% | 12.7% | 19.7% |
| 4.00 - 4.25
| 4.6% | 4.4% | 7.6% |
| 4.25 - 4.50
| 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% |
| 4.50 - 4.75
| 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
Sep 16, 2026
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 1.25 - 1.50
| — | — | — |
| 1.50 - 1.75
| — | — | — |
| 1.75 - 2.00
| 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.00 - 2.25
| 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 2.25 - 2.50
| 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 2.50 - 2.75
| 3.3% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| 2.75 - 3.00
| 10.1% | 9.9% | 5.1% |
| 3.00 - 3.25
| 19.9% | 20.0% | 13.7% |
| 3.25 - 3.50
| 25.8% | 26.1% | 24.3% |
| 3.50 - 3.75
| 22.3% | 22.5% | 27.7% |
| 3.75 - 4.00
| 12.6% | 12.5% | 19.3% |
| 4.00 - 4.25
| 4.4% | 4.3% | 7.4% |
| 4.25 - 4.50
| 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% |
| 4.50 - 4.75
| 0.1% | 0.1% | — |
Oct 28, 2026
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 1.50 - 1.75
| — | — | — |
| 1.75 - 2.00
| 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.00 - 2.25
| 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 2.25 - 2.50
| 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 2.50 - 2.75
| 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| 2.75 - 3.00
| 9.4% | 9.3% | 4.7% |
| 3.00 - 3.25
| 19.0% | 19.0% | 12.9% |
| 3.25 - 3.50
| 25.3% | 25.6% | 23.3% |
| 3.50 - 3.75
| 22.6% | 22.8% | 27.3% |
| 3.75 - 4.00
| 13.4% | 13.4% | 20.0% |
| 4.00 - 4.25
| 5.2% | 5.0% | 8.5% |
| 4.25 - 4.50
| 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% |
| 4.50 - 4.75
| 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 4.75 - 5.00
| 0.0% | 0.0% | — |
Dec 09, 2026
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 1.25 - 1.50
| — | — | — |
| 1.50 - 1.75
| 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1.75 - 2.00
| 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.00 - 2.25
| 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 2.25 - 2.50
| 2.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| 2.50 - 2.75
| 6.6% | 6.5% | 3.1% |
| 2.75 - 3.00
| 14.8% | 14.8% | 9.3% |
| 3.00 - 3.25
| 22.5% | 22.7% | 18.7% |
| 3.25 - 3.50
| 23.8% | 24.0% | 25.6% |
| 3.50 - 3.75
| 17.5% | 17.5% | 23.3% |
| 3.75 - 4.00
| 8.8% | 8.7% | 13.6% |
| 4.00 - 4.25
| 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.7% |
| 4.25 - 4.50
| 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% |
| 4.50 - 4.75
| 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4.75 - 5.00
| 0.0% | 0.0% | — |