Fed Funds Rate Probabilities

Source: CME Group

Jun 18, 2025

Target RateCurrent Probability%Previous Day Probability%Previous Week Probability%
4.00 - 4.25 2.6%0.9%1.1%
4.25 - 4.50 97.4%99.1%98.9%

Jul 30, 2025

Target RateCurrent Probability%Previous Day Probability%Previous Week Probability%
3.75 - 4.00 0.6%0.2%0.2%
4.00 - 4.25 24.9%24.0%22.0%
4.25 - 4.50 74.5%75.8%77.8%

Sep 17, 2025

Target RateCurrent Probability%Previous Day Probability%Previous Week Probability%
3.50 - 3.75 0.3%0.1%0.1%
3.75 - 4.00 13.9%14.1%10.4%
4.00 - 4.25 52.0%54.4%48.1%
4.25 - 4.50 33.8%31.4%41.3%

Oct 29, 2025

Target RateCurrent Probability%Previous Day Probability%Previous Week Probability%
3.25 - 3.50 0.2%0.1%0.1%
3.50 - 3.75 7.8%7.9%5.6%
3.75 - 4.00 35.0%36.4%30.5%
4.00 - 4.25 41.9%41.6%44.5%
4.25 - 4.50 15.1%14.0%19.4%

Dec 10, 2025

Target RateCurrent Probability%Previous Day Probability%Previous Week Probability%
3.00 - 3.25 0.1%0.0%0.0%
3.25 - 3.50 4.6%4.7%3.4%
3.50 - 3.75 23.5%24.8%20.7%
3.75 - 4.00 39.0%39.5%39.0%
4.00 - 4.25 26.4%25.2%29.2%
4.25 - 4.50 6.4%5.7%7.6%

Jan 26, 2026

Target RateCurrent Probability%Previous Day Probability%Previous Week Probability%
2.75 - 3.00 0.0%0.0%0.0%
3.00 - 3.25 2.0%2.1%1.6%
3.25 - 3.50 12.6%13.7%11.6%
3.50 - 3.75 30.1%31.4%29.4%
3.75 - 4.00 33.7%33.1%34.4%
4.00 - 4.25 17.9%16.5%19.0%
4.25 - 4.50 3.7%3.1%4.0%

Mar 18, 2026

Target RateCurrent Probability%Previous Day Probability%Previous Week Probability%
2.50 - 2.75 0.0%0.0%0.0%
2.75 - 3.00 1.1%1.1%0.9%
3.00 - 3.25 7.5%8.1%7.0%
3.25 - 3.50 21.7%22.9%21.2%
3.50 - 3.75 31.9%32.3%32.1%
3.75 - 4.00 25.5%24.5%26.1%
4.00 - 4.25 10.5%9.6%10.9%
4.25 - 4.50 1.8%1.5%1.8%

Apr 29, 2026

Target RateCurrent Probability%Previous Day Probability%Previous Week Probability%
2.25 - 2.50 0.0%0.0%0.0%
2.50 - 2.75 0.3%0.3%0.3%
2.75 - 3.00 2.9%3.2%2.9%
3.00 - 3.25 11.5%12.6%11.5%
3.25 - 3.50 24.6%25.7%24.7%
3.50 - 3.75 30.1%30.0%30.2%
3.75 - 4.00 21.3%20.0%21.2%
4.00 - 4.25 8.1%7.1%8.0%
4.25 - 4.50 1.3%1.1%1.3%

Jun 17, 2026

Target RateCurrent Probability%Previous Day Probability%Previous Week Probability%
2.00 - 2.25 0.0%0.0%0.0%
2.25 - 2.50 0.1%0.1%0.1%
2.50 - 2.75 1.3%1.4%1.2%
2.75 - 3.00 6.1%6.7%6.1%
3.00 - 3.25 16.4%17.5%16.5%
3.25 - 3.50 26.6%27.3%26.7%
3.50 - 3.75 26.8%26.2%26.8%
3.75 - 4.00 16.3%15.2%16.3%
4.00 - 4.25 5.5%4.9%5.5%
4.25 - 4.50 0.8%0.7%0.8%

Jul 29, 2026

Target RateCurrent Probability%Previous Day Probability%Previous Week Probability%
1.75 - 2.00 0.0%0.0%0.0%
2.00 - 2.25 0.1%0.0%0.0%
2.25 - 2.50 0.7%0.4%0.4%
2.50 - 2.75 3.5%2.7%2.5%
2.75 - 3.00 10.9%9.4%8.9%
3.00 - 3.25 21.2%19.9%19.2%
3.25 - 3.50 26.7%27.0%26.7%
3.50 - 3.75 22.0%23.5%24.0%
3.75 - 4.00 11.3%12.7%13.4%
4.00 - 4.25 3.3%3.8%4.2%
4.25 - 4.50 0.4%0.5%0.6%

Sep 16, 2026

Target RateCurrent Probability%Previous Day Probability%Previous Week Probability%
1.50 - 1.75 0.0%——
1.75 - 2.00 0.0%0.0%0.0%
2.00 - 2.25 0.2%0.1%0.1%
2.25 - 2.50 1.4%1.0%0.8%
2.50 - 2.75 5.4%4.3%3.7%
2.75 - 3.00 13.5%11.9%10.8%
3.00 - 3.25 22.6%21.6%20.6%
3.25 - 3.50 25.5%26.2%26.2%
3.50 - 3.75 19.2%20.9%22.0%
3.75 - 4.00 9.3%10.5%11.7%
4.00 - 4.25 2.6%3.0%3.5%
4.25 - 4.50 0.3%0.4%0.5%

Oct 28, 2026

Target RateCurrent Probability%Previous Day Probability%Previous Week Probability%
1.25 - 1.50 ———
1.50 - 1.75 0.0%0.0%0.0%
1.75 - 2.00 0.0%0.0%0.0%
2.00 - 2.25 0.2%0.3%0.2%
2.25 - 2.50 1.5%1.5%1.1%
2.50 - 2.75 5.6%5.5%4.4%
2.75 - 3.00 13.7%13.4%11.7%
3.00 - 3.25 22.7%22.3%21.1%
3.25 - 3.50 25.4%25.4%25.8%
3.50 - 3.75 19.0%19.3%21.1%
3.75 - 4.00 9.1%9.3%10.9%
4.00 - 4.25 2.5%2.6%3.3%
4.25 - 4.50 0.3%0.3%0.4%

Dec 09, 2026

Target RateCurrent Probability%Previous Day Probability%Previous Week Probability%
1.00 - 1.25 ———
1.25 - 1.50 ———
1.50 - 1.75 0.0%0.0%0.0%
1.75 - 2.00 0.0%0.0%0.0%
2.00 - 2.25 0.3%0.3%0.2%
2.25 - 2.50 1.7%1.8%1.2%
2.50 - 2.75 6.1%6.0%4.7%
2.75 - 3.00 14.3%14.0%12.1%
3.00 - 3.25 22.8%22.5%21.3%
3.25 - 3.50 25.0%25.0%25.7%
3.50 - 3.75 18.4%18.7%20.7%
3.75 - 4.00 8.7%8.9%10.6%
4.00 - 4.25 2.4%2.5%3.1%
4.25 - 4.50 0.3%0.3%0.4%