Fed Funds Rate Probabilities
Source: CME Group
Sep 18, 2024
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 4.75 - 5.00
| 64.0% | 68.0% | 34.0% |
| 5.00 - 5.25
| 36.0% | 32.0% | 66.0% |
Nov 07, 2024
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 4.25 - 4.50
| 26.9% | 28.0% | 18.1% |
| 4.50 - 4.75
| 52.2% | 53.2% | 51.0% |
| 4.75 - 5.00
| 20.9% | 18.8% | 30.9% |
Dec 18, 2024
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 3.75 - 4.00
| 14.8% | 18.4% | 12.7% |
| 4.00 - 4.25
| 40.8% | 44.5% | 41.1% |
| 4.25 - 4.50
| 35.0% | 30.6% | 36.9% |
| 4.50 - 4.75
| 9.4% | 6.5% | 9.3% |
Jan 29, 2025
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 3.25 - 3.50
| 8.1% | 10.5% | 6.7% |
| 3.50 - 3.75
| 29.1% | 33.3% | 27.7% |
| 3.75 - 4.00
| 37.6% | 36.6% | 38.9% |
| 4.00 - 4.25
| 20.9% | 16.8% | 22.3% |
| 4.25 - 4.50
| 4.2% | 2.8% | 4.4% |
Mar 12, 2025
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 2.75 - 3.00
| 0.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| 3.00 - 3.25
| 9.9% | 14.0% | 8.7% |
| 3.25 - 3.50
| 29.8% | 33.8% | 28.8% |
| 3.50 - 3.75
| 36.2% | 33.6% | 37.3% |
| 3.75 - 4.00
| 19.5% | 14.7% | 20.6% |
| 4.00 - 4.25
| 3.9% | 2.4% | 4.0% |
Apr 23, 2025
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 2.25 - 2.50
| — | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.50 - 2.75
| 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.2% |
| 2.75 - 3.00
| 9.5% | 14.1% | 10.0% |
| 3.00 - 3.25
| 28.9% | 33.8% | 29.3% |
| 3.25 - 3.50
| 35.9% | 33.4% | 36.3% |
| 3.50 - 3.75
| 20.2% | 14.6% | 19.5% |
| 3.75 - 4.00
| 4.6% | 2.3% | 3.7% |
| 4.00 - 4.25
| 0.2% | — | — |
Jun 04, 2025
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 2.00 - 2.25
| — | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.25 - 2.50
| 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| 2.50 - 2.75
| 5.2% | 8.4% | 5.0% |
| 2.75 - 3.00
| 19.5% | 24.7% | 18.3% |
| 3.00 - 3.25
| 32.5% | 33.6% | 32.3% |
| 3.25 - 3.50
| 27.8% | 23.3% | 29.1% |
| 3.50 - 3.75
| 12.2% | 8.0% | 12.7% |
| 3.75 - 4.00
| 2.3% | 1.1% | 2.1% |
| 4.00 - 4.25
| 0.1% | — | — |
Jul 16, 2025
| Target Rate | Current Probability% | Previous Day Probability% | Previous Week Probability% |
|---|
| 1.75 - 2.00
| — | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.00 - 2.25
| 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| 2.25 - 2.50
| 4.2% | 6.5% | 4.6% |
| 2.50 - 2.75
| 16.4% | 20.5% | 17.1% |
| 2.75 - 3.00
| 29.7% | 31.3% | 31.0% |
| 3.00 - 3.25
| 28.8% | 26.0% | 29.3% |
| 3.25 - 3.50
| 15.5% | 11.9% | 14.2% |
| 3.50 - 3.75
| 4.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% |
| 3.75 - 4.00
| 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 4.00 - 4.25
| 0.0% | — | — |